Intermediate Baseball Betting Strategy
Baseball bettors have a comprehensive list of things to consider when handicapping baseball and we have generated a list of baseball betting tips to help you with your bets. One example is that ballparks are a colossal factor in runs scored, with certain parks producing lots of offense and others being extremely pitcher friendly.
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Studying the Stats Beyond the Box Score
Understanding advanced statistics and the factors that affect how many runs are going to be scored is essential knowledge to successful long term baseball betting. A lot of factors can influence a game, so it is indispensable to try and get the clearest possible interpretation of baseball statistics as you possibly can.
Saber-metric statistics will go beyond basic numbers and will remove the uncertainty of certain baseball numbers. Understanding advanced fielding, pitching and hitting metrics will help bettors to spot hidden value.
In addition, bettors must be extremely knowledgable regarding MLB pitchers, as the betting lines are heavily influenced by the starting pitchers. Read more about how to win at baseball betting for more information regarding these intermediate baseball betting topics.
At the heart of baseball betting is a reliance of advanced statistics and starting pitching, but there is much more baseball betting strategy than that for bettors to be looking at. This includes ballpark weather, umpire analysis, and charting pitches and while the starting pitcher is a decisive factor, it is important as a baseball handicapper to go beyond the starters.
What Variables to Look Out For in MLB
Successful bettors look at the bullpen, team defense, and undervalued hitters who are on a hot streak to maximize their value. When it comes to making your own baseball betting picks, there are a few things to look for.
Pitchers who have hit or miss starts and walk a lot of guys are a lot riskier than those that consistently pound the strike zone. Though they may dazzle the fans one night, the same pitcher may get shelled five days later. Paying large amounts of juice or vig is also a tremendous no-no, baseball is a game full of luck and taking large favorites consistently will not work out.
The premier baseball league in the world gives bettors plenty of options when wagering. Pitchers are the basis for MLB betting odds, and it is crucial to be aware of the pitcher’s recent performances, stats against his opposition, and other factors. Understanding the importance of a team and pitching matchup, based on the line, is an invaluable skill for baseball betting.
Here are some other good things to keep in mind:
Making Money Early on New Ballparks
Baseball is unique in the fact that its ballparks are all different. This actually impacts play and can change run scoring values at many of the league’s venues. Parks like San Diego’s Petco are notoriously friendly to pitchers, while Yankee Stadium is a hitter’s paradise.
Where you can make money is when a new ballpark comes into play. Every so often, a team will build a new stadium, and there will be some uncertainty about how the park will play. If you do your homework and read local reports on how the park is treating fly balls, you can make great money early in the year.
For example, the Mets’ Citi Field and the Twins’ Target Field are both pitcher-friendly parks that have opened in the last two seasons. Betting the under often before this became common knowledge would have earned bettors some cash.
The Difference between ERA and FIP
In advanced baseball analysis, there is something called Fielding Independent Pitching. The formula was developed many years ago by a man named Voros McCracken, and it sought to separate the things a pitcher could control and the things he could not. When assessing pitching matchups, you need to recognize FIP.
Some pitchers carry a higher than average ERA, but their FIP says that they are pitching similarly to career norms. They are striking out hitters at high rates, walking few guys, and controlling home runs. These pitchers will likely be undervalued for a short time until their ERAs regress to the mean. You can ride the wave by betting the under on these pitchers for a short while.
Things that Depress Scoring
Many bettors look for reasons to bet the over because they love to see runs cross the plate. If you are smart, you will find reasons to bet the under. There are plenty of things that often go overlooked by bettors and they have a direct impact on the game’s total.
The following are some things to look for when betting the under, as they correlate to depressed scoring:
– Two backup catchers facing one another
– Teams playing early games on getaway day, where batting practice is not taken on the field
– Two teams with elite defenses playing one another
– Two pitchers with FIPs that are lower than their ERAs
– These things will usually lead to less scoring and many bettors leave them out of their analysis. Keep them in mind and you will have success.
NCAA Baseball Betting and Research Tools
Though professional baseball is the go to wagering option for most bettors, NCAA baseball betting is in some ways more compelling, and can be more profitable for bettors who know the sport. Conference games and tournaments, along with the College World Series, are normally available to bet on.
Run scoring and emotions both run high in the college game, so being aware of how a team is feeling and how hot their bats are will be a significant advantage to college baseball bettors.
Baseball betting software is a marvellous tool to use for baseball bettors as it saves bettors time doing their daily research and it provides more analysis about the game. It makes it easier to track statistics and helps to get bettors the real truth behind the numbers. Most importantly, baseball betting software helps you bet more effectively and make you more successful as a baseball bettor.
Baseball handicapping presents some unique challenges to prospective and experienced gamblers alike. Many factors make baseball gambling a much different animal than things like football and basketball, forcing bettors to adjust to the long season and the variance that goes with it.