MLB Picks: Marlins/Braves, Tigers/D’Backs and Nats/Rockies
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
We’re going to aim for an under in the Miami-Atlanta matchup on Wednesday night. Nathan Eovaldi and Ervin Santana will take the mound for their respective teams. Entering Tuesday, the last four meetings between the teams in Atlanta have gone under the number. Although the Marlins have been an excellent over bet this season, most of that happens at home, where they’ve scored the fourth-most runs in the Majors (4.57 runs per game). On the road, they average much less at 3.65, which is 29th out of 30 teams.
Eovaldi has pitched well while on the road as opposing hitters are batting just .244 against him (compared to .290 at home). As for Santana, he’s been steady at home, going 5-2 with a 1.26 WHIP. He’s holding batters to .259 at home compared to .275 on the road.
Detroit Tigers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Detroit’s offense has been clicking in the month of July as they rank second in the majors this month in runs, batting average and are third in OPS. They’re going to be the best choice as they wrap up their three-game set in the desert on Tuesday night.
Anibal Sanchez will start for Detroit, and he’s been fantastic on the road. He posted a 2.16 ERA in road games along with a 1.06 WHIP and a .226 opposing batting average. He’ll take on Trevor Cahill of the Diamondbacks, who has allowed four homeruns in five starts while allowing opponents to bat .322 against him with a ridiculous .932 OPS. His biggest issue is keeping runners off the basepaths as his gaudy 1.98 WHIP is causing him problems. It won’t get any easier against a hot Tigers’ offense.
The Tigers have also been an excellent road team as of late. Entering Tuesday, they averaged 5.8 runs per game while batting .299 with 19 homeruns. They won 12 of their last 15 away games.
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
While it’s tempting to take a shot with the Rockies here because Nats starter Stephen Strasburg has struggled on the road this year (1-5, 4.92 ERA), the over is the safer bet.
As mentioned, Strasburg’s splits have to be a concern. Sure, the Nats are a first-place team, and the Rockies are dead-last in the National League West, but Strasburg is 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA at home and opposing batters hit just .242 against him there. On the road, those numbers change to 1-5 with a 4.92 ERA and a .290 batting average. He allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last six road starts.
As for the Nats and hitting, they bat .280 against left-handed pitching, and they’ll take on Jorge De La Rosa on Wednesday. He has a career ERA of 4.57 against the Nationals.