Take a look at our lineup tips for the BMW Championship:
Aronimink Golf Course west of Philadelphia is the location of this week’s BMW Championship. The course is a 7300-yard, par 70 that hasn’t been played much on tour. This makes identifying course fit here a lot more difficult. In the few tournaments that have been played here in recent memory, there was a clear correlation in ball striking at this course. However, there has been a redesign of this course since then, so we are really in the dark here. Based on course renovations, I think the course SHOULD play harder based on the changes made.
They mainly added bunkers and other challenges like water and trees. However, the rough was thick at previous tournaments here. This week, based on limited video and reporting, it appears that the rough is shorter. If the rough is shorter, it should benefit bombers. That is especially the case with the course appearing to be long. The course sets up where players see a lot of average length par 4s. A bomber on these holes should be able to get a wedge into a lot of these holes, which would benefit them greatly. Other than these angles, I am targeting golfers that have just been playing good golf lately.
The top tier of golfers is littered with talent this week and anyone is “in play” this week. If I had to rank the top 5 guys on DK, it would go like this: Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, and Rory McIlroy. This is a no-cut event and this is where a lot of these guys thrive. You need players that score well. Justin Thomas is known for par 4 birdies and that will be key this week. JT eagled 2 holes on Monday, which just shows what he can do for scoring point, which is more important than normal in a no-cut event. Brooks has similar qualities on a slightly smaller scale. Justin Rose is really talented and may have the highest finishing probability, but I like the scoring upside of the top 3 more.
Jordan Spieth is my favorite high-end option. He has been trending up, especially with the putter, and that is a great sign. There are multiple tournaments recently that Spieth has contended in. Every time, there are 3 holes that he completely bombs that were the difference between him and first place. Although that’s not enough, it is a good sign, especially from someone that we have seen win a lot before. Eventually, Spieth will close one out and I plan on being there when he does.
Tiger Woods has been great recently based on his strokes gained metrics, especially off the tee. Now, He isn’t leading the tour, but he has been MUCH better. Tiger is still in the stage where he is always missing one part of his game. However, it seems to be about time that it all clicks. Tiger didn’t pop last week because he wasn’t hitting his irons that well. That has been his strength all year long. I think that the irons will regress this week and Tiger will pop towards the top of the leaderboard late in the weekend.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello has been one of my favorite golfers over the last month and it will not stop now. He is clearly rounding into form and I feel confident in him keeping up the pace. Rafa has proven to be a borderline top 10 guy at points in his career and I think he is going to get back to a similar level soon. Rafa has the well-rounded game that makes me feel about playing at a course that I don’t know that well.
Cam Smith is just playing too well to ignore him. He has posted back to back top 3’s in 2 FedEx Playoff events. That is hard to do, especially for a player that isn’t considered a top-tier guy. Smith has shot 9 straight rounds in the 60’s and unless that drastically turns around this week, he should be a great play at his price this week.
Emiliano Grillo is a great scorer on par 4’s and on par 70 courses. I think Grillo has the ability to score on this course with the top players in the world at a course like this, especially if the approach shot is the most important shot on the course. Grillo can stick a lot of close irons and that could be the recipe for success this weekend. I want to target cheap guys that have the ability to excel in a certain area in a field like this and Grillo is a great option for that.
Beau Hossler is my favorite cheap guy this week. Hossler is a great driver of the golf ball and he could thrive if this course allows the bombers to get what they want. Hossler has the ability to go low and has been hindered by terrible play on Sunday’s lately. Hossler’s placements aren’t a true indication of his recent play, and that’s a situation I want to attack.