While most of America waits for legalized sports gambling, we can still enjoy playing daily fantasy sports in the States. Baseball games take on a new level of excitement as you follow your players’ at bats or sweat their pitch count through the middle innings. The article below will give DFS players 5 tips to help when setting a lineup.
Tip #1: Target pitchers who get strikeouts
In most DFS scoring systems, a strikeout is worth a disproportionate amount of points. A guy who racks up 8 or 9 Ks in a 6 inning outing will frequently score more points than someone who gets 4 or 5 strikeouts in an 8 inning gem.
In fact, a strikeout is worth more points than a home run causes a fantasy player to move in the negative direction. In today’s era of huge strikeout performances, your daily fantasy pitchers have to be able to strike guys out. Therefore, looking at K/9 or K% statistics are more important than ERA or WHIP.
Tip #2: Do not put too much stock in batter vs pitcher statistics
If you listen to a broadcast you will frequently hear the announcer say something like, “Mike Trout has been all over James Paxton. Entering today’s contest Trout is hitting 455 against the lefty.” Meanwhile, Trout only has 11 at bats making the average relatively unimportant.
There are times in which the batter’s ownership of the pitcher is true. (For example, check out Harper vs. Tehran.) As a rule, however, looking at BVP stats is a great way to go broke quickly because the sample size just is not large enough.
Tip #3 Look for inexpensive bats hitting near the top of lineups
Many times a player will get a spot start in the leadoff spot or two hole when filling in for an everyday player. These guys are regularly on the very cheap end of the salary cap, and because they are leading off they will get great opportunities. Examples from today: Daniel Robertson, Ji-Man Choi, Ryan Goings and Robbie Grossman.
They may not get you a ton of points, but they will have chances to easily reach value based on their low salaries. They will also allow you to squeeze in an extra stud bat or roster the best pitcher on the slate.
Tip #4 It is okay to leave salary on the table
Most of the pricing algorithms do not take subpar pitching matchups into account. They do drop players’ prices significantly if the team is facing an absolute stud like Chris Sale or Corey Kluber, but not if they are facing a guy like Luis Severino or Carlos Carrasco.
There are times in which you will get done making your team and have 10% or more of your salary left. It is okay to leave it like that. There have been many times when moving up to get the “better” player netted a much worse result.
Tip #5 Except in extreme situations, ignore the wind
If there is a sustained wind pushing the ball to left field at 30+ MPH, go ahead and roster players in that game. Or if the wind is blowing out with some force in Wrigley, jump on the Cubs and their opponent. Other than that, playing guys just because the wind is blowing out to center at 15 MPH or avoiding guys because it is blowing in from right center at 18 MPH will cause you to make more mistakes than playing the pitching matchup.
The baseball season is in full swing and playing daily fantasy sports can really add to the excitement. Following these tips can make you more successful and win you some extra cash while watching your favorite teams.