Baseball betting is a much different art than almost all other sports betting due to the variance in the sport. The biggest lines we see all year are often around -300, and that is the best team with a Cy Young candidate vs. the worst team with an A-ball guy starting. Even then, we see the underdogs pull out a lot of crazy wins all season long like it is nothing.
When betting on baseball, I really like just focusing on the pitching matchups and going from there. I went through matchups over the weekend and found ones that I think I will be higher on than Vegas, hopefully providing some value over the holiday weekend.
San Francisco over Pittsburgh around even money: Bumgarner is likely somewhat over the hill, but he is still better than Jordan Lyles. I think the Giants lineup is much closer to the Pirates than people think and I just trust Mad Bum to get the job done vs. a rather non-threatening lineup.
Dodgers over Brewers (-120): Ross Stripling vs. Jhoulys Chacin is not being treated as a mismatch the way it should be. Stripling and the Dodgers bullpen is more consistent than the Brewers, and the Dodgers left-handed lineup should be a really tough matchup for Chacin.
Rockies over Phillies (-112): German Marquez is a top 20 pitcher in baseball right now, and he simply isn’t seen in that way yet. I will continue to bet on the talent from the right-hander until he gets the respect he deserves.
Blue Jays over Athletics (+125): Marcus Stroman is 0-3 on the season, but he has posted a 1.99 ERA with a career-high swinging strike rate with a change in pitch mix. I expect Stroman to have his best season and I think this line should be closer to even than it is.
Blue Jays over Athletics: Matt Shoemaker is off to a blazing start, and I think it is real. Shoemaker has some elite stuff, and his career has been all about him using the right pitches and staying healthy. He is clearly healthy right now, and I think Toronto is picking up on some of the pitch mix things that some of the elite teams have been exploiting for years. I will like the Blue Jays in this spot almost regardless of price.
Rockies over Phillies: This matchup is Senzatela vs. Nola, and that sounds really one-sided. I expect the Phillies to be something like -140-160 here and I think the Rockies are valuable if that is the case. Nola has been flat all season, and Coors Field will only enhance his lack of movement on his breaking pitches this year. I think this is a high scoring affair where I like the dog and the over.
I am a big fan of taking the Yankees and Astros in smash spots on Sunday’s slate and maybe pairing them with some closer games. Paxton and McHugh have looked sharp early, and I expect them to run through their opponents without much trouble while the opposing pitchers should both struggle.
Cardinals over Mets: Noah Syndergaard is just not as sharp as a lot of other elite pitchers, and I think this Cardinals lineup will have no issue making contact with Syndergaard to a decent degree. Syndergaard lacks elite command, and that should help the Cardinals stay in the game. I expect the Cards to be significant dogs in this spot, which I would really like to jump on.
Braves over Indians: I would expect that this line is really close to even in Cleveland. Atlanta has the better lineup where most people would consider Bieber the more proven prospect. I think that Fried is incredibly talented and he is just way safe vs. a much worse Indians lineup. I love the Braves on Sunday night.