Today is a great slate to implement tournament strategy to take down a big GPP. When I first looked at this slate, I thought, “Look at all of these elite arms.” As I looked closer, I really didn’t love anyone. My favorite GPP play at the top is probably Chris Archer, but he isn’t one of those guys that break the bank. While looking for offenses, I found 3 clear spots to attack; Houston, Yankees, and Coors. All of these offenses will be rather expensive and hard to fit with these stud pitchers. This combination of pitching and hitting options provides a lot of opportunities to leverage the field in tournaments today.
Fading the studs
On DraftKings, I don’t want to play anyone over $10,000 in tournaments tonight, but if I had to, I would play Sale->Greinke->>>>>>>>>>>Scherzer/Carrasco/Kershaw. Sale has the most upside. Greinke has the best matchup. The other three are pure talent plays just knowing that any of these guys could no-hit a team on any given night.
My favorite pitcher on the slate PP$ is Marcus Stroman and it’s not even that close. I think Stroman outperforms 3 of the top 6 pitchers in salary on DraftKings tonight and he’s much cheaper than them anyways. Stroman gets one of the best strikeout matchups in baseball and has shown flashes of being the old Stroman before the injuries. If we get that guy, he should be priced around Archer and Keuchel today, which he is not.
I like Archer’s K upside and Keuchel’s matchup, which will lead me to play a good amount of both of them, but I also think there are a few pitchers down the board that can be solid. CC Sabathia is normally just solid. He is coming off of an extra day of rest that has lead to him being much better in the past. Sabathia has a 1.59 ERA coming off of extended rest this year in 34 innings pitched. Mike Fiers hasn’t been killed by the Indians yet this year and he has had 2 outstanding performances against them. He gets the Indians away from home, which has been a struggle for them all year and he is cheap. I don’t love either Fiers or CC, but I will dabble in both
Lance Lynn is just better than his price tag and I can’t help myself. Lynn was one of the players affected by the free agency waiting period in the offseason. A bunch of players, including Lynn, didn’t sign until spring training has started and this forced them to miss most or all of spring training. Almost every single one of these players struggled to start the season and Lynn was definitely one of them. More recently, Lynn has been a viable pitcher most times out there and has definitely shown that he is better than his seasonal numbers. Lynn gets a potent Red Sox offense, but a sneaky good matchup for someone like Lynn with wide platoon splits. Lynn is a very good pitcher vs. right-handed hitters and the Red Sox lineup is full of righties. I am trying to convince myself to trust my gut here on Lynn and play a lot of him and I think I will because of the offenses I want to roster.
The Expensive Bats
Coors, Houston, and Yankees are usually the most expensive lineups on a slate and they are also my favorite spots tonight. Now, with all of these elite options at pitcher, there is no way that all 4 of these offenses are highly owned. In tournaments, bats win the slate and I will be stacking as many combinations of these bats as I possibly can. They all have crazy upside and the ability to break a slate on a semi-often basis. If I play the pitchers I have talked about, I can play all of these bats without a problem and that is exactly what I want to do.
Trying to go away from what the field will do is always a great strategy in GPP’s, but it’s even better when you feel good about it. I love Stroman, along with most people I assume. I love the expensive bats, but not so much the expensive pitching, and I love Lance Lynn against the Red Sox as much as someone possibly could (which isn’t that much). The cheap bats aren’t great either. Can you find a couple 3.5K guys at the top of the lineup when lineups are released? Sure, I guess, but do you want to? The Pirates face Jason Vargas, who really wasn’t that bad just before getting hurt. The Phillies get DeSclafani, who hasn’t been good but isn’t a complete gas can. You could say the same about Andrew Cashner, who faces the Rays tonight.
If I had to rank cheaper options: Rays, Pirates, Blue Jays, and the kind of cheap Cardinals & Phillies.