Developing a baseball betting strategy can be one of the most difficult things for someone just starting out, but it’s incredibly important. Too many new bettors think that they can have success by just randomly selecting teams based upon gut feeling and instinct. Though this might work out in the short term, any bettor who wants to have long-term success will need to develop a baseball betting strategy.
A good strategy will be based upon a few essential elements. Some portions of the strategy will attack the big picture, while others will assess games based upon specific, statistical factors. These are more intermediate techniques, so if you’re looking to bounce back to our beginner baseball betting tutorials you can always find them in our MLB section.
Relying on Statistics
Any good baseball handicapper will have a baseball betting strategy based around statistics. In order to truly have success, you must know which statistics to use. Baseball analysis has undergone something of a renaissance in the last twenty years, with new ideas coming about and new stats providing insight.
Smart bettors will beef up on sabermetric knowledge, learning to predict future performance based upon the correct factors. The following are examples of sabermetric statistics that can be useful when forming a baseball betting strategy:
- Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)
- Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR)
- Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)
- Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
Smart bettors know that FIP is a better way of analyzing pitcher performance and can often provide insights into who is undervalued. Using updated stats like UZR will help in analyzing defense, while wOBA is a much better offensive metric than trusty old batting average.
As a baseball bettor, it is important to look for undervalued assets. Baseball betting, in a way, is like investing on the stock market. You want to find commodities, be it players or teams, that are not being viewed properly by the betting public.
By using statistical analysis, it is easy to figure out when players are getting a bit unlucky. Their standard statistics say that they are struggling, but advanced analysis tells us that they will bounce back in time. With this knowledge, bettors are able to look for betting lines that are not reflecting proper value.
Though you won’t win every single time, if you consistently get good value with your lines, you’ll come out on top over the long haul.
Analyzing More than Just Pitching
All too often, bettors fall into the trap of just handicapping pitching. A good baseball betting strategy will certainly take pitching into account, but it will consider much more than that. One cannot properly understand pitching performance without analyzing the defenses that play behind pitchers.
Likewise, many people neglect to consider bullpen strength in their analysis. Some will not handicap the ballpark or the umpire behind the plate. These are all important factors that must be noted when making bets.
A good baseball betting strategy will seek to synthesize all of the available information and come up with a conclusion on which games present the most value. By using stats and looking for undervalued commodities, bettors can become one of the sharps.