The Major League Baseball All-Star break has come and gone, which means our next milestone is the July 31st trade deadline before the sprint for the postseason. There are a few intriguing series over the next week or two, but for now, let’s focus on some matchups out of the break with some picks for Friday and Saturday.
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees ML Pick
Friday, 7:05 PM ET
Friday’s matchup between the Reds and Yankees will see Mike Leake take to the bump for the Reds versus David Phelps for the Yankees. Phelps’ numbers look pretty solid (3.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) but the Yankees aren’t winning many of his starts. They’ve lost eight of the last 10 times he’s taken to the mound. The challenge appears to be run support as the Yanks are providing him with just 3.4 runs per game in that 10-game span.
The Reds are worth a look with Leake on the mound. He’s pitched slightly better on the road (3.36 ERA) compared to at home (3.75 ERA). The Reds are the better team with the better pitcher, and home-field advantage might not be a huge factor (Yankees are 18-23 at home this season).
Pick: Reds -105
Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick (Total Runs)
Friday, 9:40 PM ET
The pitching matchup in Friday’s contest between the Cubs and Diamondbacks points to an over. Hurlers Edwin Jackson and Trevor Cahill have seen plenty of high-scoring affairs in their starts with the Cubs posting and over-under record of 11-6 in Jackson’s starts while the Diamondbacks have gone over in three of Cahill’s four starts.
Jackson has been a complete gong show, accumulating a 6.05 ERA in road starts this season. He’s 1-7 in away starts where opposing hitters are batting .291 against him. For his career against the D-Backs, he’s posted a 4.80 ERA and a .288 batting average.
As for Cahill, he’s had a rough time this season as well. He’s been used out of the bullpen more so than as a starter and that’s because he has only made it to six innings in one of his four starts. He’s been throttled at home, compiling a 7.71 ERA with 19 runs allowed in 21 innings pitched. Opposing batters are hitting .313 against him at Chase Field.
Neither of these teams are great in terms of batting but the pitchers should help them look good. There’s a total of 8.5 on the board and we should get an over here.
Pick: Over 8.5
San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Pick (O/U)
Saturday, 7: 10 PM ET
We’ll be faced with a relatively low total in this contest but under should be the way to play this Tim Hudson-Henderson Alvarez matchup. Hudson has a 2.87 ERA on the season but the All-Star’s road ERA (2.52) is stronger than his home ERA (3.13). He also has a sparkling 1.08 WHIP away from home.
As for Alvarez, he pitches significantly better at home than away. He has a somewhat lofty 3.81 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his 10 starts on the road. At Marlins Park, Alvarez has a 1.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Take the under.