Although betting on NBA games is popular at sportsbooks (and March Madness pools are common in offices all over the nation), the National Basketball Association has always had a smaller market share than Major League Baseball or the National Football League.
NASCAR and other auto racing events have actually surpassed NBA games in terms of viewership in recent years. When NBA Commissioner Adam Silver announced in early 2014 that his league would one day rival the NFL for TV viewers and overall popularity, it was seen as little more than sabre rattling.
Though a typical NBA game doesn’t draw in the same numbers as Monday Night Football, among sports bettors, pro basketball games are more popular than among the general population.
Why Bet on NBA Games?
NBA games appeal to sports bettors for a few reasons. Of course, there will always be fans of the game who bet on their hometown favorite team or hit the sportsbooks in Vegas during the NBA Finals. Pro basketball may not have the massive TV audiences of pro football, but the sport does have dedicated fans.
The teams are small, relative to football and baseball, making the job of handicapping games a lot simpler than in MLB or the NFL.
An NBA season is long, running from late October to mid-June. The number of times two NBA teams face one another head-to-head each season, and the sheer number of games played over the course of a year, gives handicappers a large pool of data to make their picks.
The Basics of NBA Wagering
There is a long and intense debate among NBA bettors on whether it is better to place bets on one side or the other to win outright or bet on game point totals instead. The debate over whether betting sides (point spread and moneyline betting) or game totals will never be settled, because there is no one appropriate way to bet the NBA.
Betting on point spreads means laying bets according to what a sportsbook will think the outcome of a pro basketball game will be.
A book will release a point spread that look like this:
The use of these symbols contains a lot of information in a small package. Bettors know the teams in the contest (the San Antonio Spurs are SA, the Houston Rockets are HOU), where the game is being played (the home team is always listed on the bottom), who the sportsbooks favors to win (in point spreads the favorite is marked by a minus symbol), and the point spread itself, which in this case is 4.
This type of bet is similar to a point spread wager in that the player is asked to select a side to win outright. The difference with the moneyline is that the outcome of the bet doesn’t depend on the number of points the team won or lost by.
A typical moneyline looks like this:
As with the point spread, a few details are available at a glance. Bettors see the two teams playing (Milwaukee and Indiana), the home team (also listed on the bottom, so in this case it’s the Pacers), and a couple of other important details.
The plus and minus signs here mean the opposite of in point spread betting. The team indicated with a “-“ is the favorite, and the number next to the minus symbol tells bettors how much they’ll have to be to earn a $100 return. For the underdog Bucks (marked with a plus symbol), a bet of just $100 returns a payout of $500. The huge difference in the line here indicates the difference in the quality of the two teams. A line like this indicates that Indiana is a heavy favorite.
Game Total (Over/Under) Betting
Arguments in favor of point spread and moneyline bets over game totals in the NBA are about appreciating the beauty of the sport and the teams themselves. With game total wagers, the bettor has no stake in the outcome of the game besides the final scores of the two participating teams.
The phrase “game total” refers to the total of points scored by both teams in a pro basketball game. A sportsbook represents their over/under bets something like this:
Clippers 198.5o -115
Jazz 198.5u -105
Bettors lay wagers on either “over” (hoping that the two team’s points scored will total 199 or more) or the “under” (in hopes that the final score will add up to 198 or less). The second number listed next to each team is the size of bet a player would have to make to earn back $100.
Three Must-Pick Pro Basketball Games
An NBA season is long – each team plays 82 regular season games. Casual fans of the game who don’t want to spend eight months of the year handicapping NBA games should at least consider laying a wager during these three contests.
The NBA does as good a job at the theatrical side of the game as any other pro sports league. The season’s opening night game is normally a headline contest designed to draw in a ton of attention. An example would be the 2014-2015 season, when the defending champion Spurs hosted the Cleveland Cavaliers (and their recent re-hire LeBron James). A smart bettor can easily out-pick the masses of bettors laying wagers without much insight into the game.
Conference Championship Finals
This is technically not a single game; it’s the final playoff round before the league’s championship. In recent years, pro basketball’s lack of league parity means there is usually a clear favorite and underdog when it comes to the Conference finals. Bettors who like to go against the trend will have plenty of opportunities for that during the NBA Conference Finals.
Technically another series and not a game, the NBA Finals bring in the largest viewership in any given season, which generally means more people betting on games at your sportsbook. Line movement in the 2014 Finals meant great value for wagers on San Antonio.
Since the Spurs didn’t look like the giant-killers that appeared courtside from Game 3 onward, fan and trend wagers were so heavily in favor of Miami early on that the line was soft all the way through the final game. San Antonio at -6 in Game 5, after the Heat had all but thrown in the towel? That’s a great example of when betting during the NBA Finals is a good idea.
Betting on pro basketball is more stressful than wagering on pro football and involves a more volatile league than Major League Baseball. For those reasons, some sport bettors won’t place NBA wagers. For fans of the game, though, or for handicappers interested in the statistical complexity involved, professional basketball wagering offers some exciting opportunities for high-value wagers.
Parlay betting in the NBA (as in other sports) means combining multiple game picks into one single wager. The upsides are many, including the lack of juice, the high potential for bet-hedging, and potentially big payouts on relatively low-risk bets. The main downside is that successful parlay bettors have to pick more than one game successfully, in a market where picking just one contest the right way can sometimes seem impossible.
The appeal of parlays is easy to see – bettors who like to take a little risk in order to get a potentially big reward are everywhere. Parlays are a type of exotic wager that’s not too exotic, more thrilling than a straight-up moneyline or over/under wager, but not so thrilling that bettors are reaching for a dose of anxiety medication.
Parlays have odds based on the size of the pool of games picked and the preferences of the bookmaker a bettor buys the parlay from. Generally speaking, parlay payouts in the NBA look something like this:
2 Teams 2/1
3 Teams 6/1
4 Teams 10/1
5 Teams 27/1
6 Teams 40/1
7 Teams 75/1
8 Teams 150/1
9 Teams 300/1
10 Teams 750/1
11 Teams 1,100/1
12 Teams 1,800/1
The number next to the size of the parlay indicates the payout, so that a successful 3-team parlay pays $6 for every $1 wagered, etc.
Yes, the larger payout is due to increased risk, something that’s always the case in sports betting (or casino betting for that matter). But the biggest payouts on parlays (as much as 1,800/1 for a successful 12-team parlay bet) carry the biggest risk, and a simple 2- or 3-team parlay wager can be many times more valuable than individual bets on those two or three games.
Using our above example, a bettor could parlay the Cavs and Spurs picks into a single bet for a potential 6/1 payout. If either of the picks fails, the whole wager fails – there’s your increased risk.
Parlays can get a little more complicated when placed on multiple odds lines – bettors are able to place parlays on the moneyline, over/under, and point spread, all in the same wager. Parlays are endlessly interchangeable, which is another big part of their appeal, and the reason they can be approached somewhat strategically.
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NBA Parlay Strategy Basics
The strategy most often used by successful parlay bettors is simple hedging. Hedging is an investment term that’s used by everyone from hedge fund managers and bankers to illegal numbers-runners. All hedging means is covering one’s wager in such a way that losses are minimized.
The pay outs in the table above are based solely on a line and an amount wagered, making them extremely easy to hedge. Here’s an example – players who have a 3-team parlay that includes a late night game that find themselves already 2/3 of the way to success can hedge their bet on the third game, betting fifty percent of the amount the parlay would reward. This guarantees a profit – the 3-team parlay would pay out $600 on a $100 investment, so betting $300 on the third game’s outcome in the opposite direction means winning $200 regardless of the outcome of that final game.
Hedging may not be the sexiest piece of sports betting strategy ever, but it limits risk better for parlay-style wagers than any other method, especially for players who have the bankroll to support a weekly parlay wager throughout the long NBA season.
How a Parlay Works
Parlays work like this – imagine a set of games in which the outcomes seem fairly clear to you. For whatever reason, the games available in a given day seem particularly easy for you to handicap – maybe the new-look Cavaliers are a lock at home against the Philadelphia 76ers, while San Antonio has a clear edge even on the road against the Utah Jazz.
With a parlay, the potential payout (should both picks come through) is somewhere in the neighborhood of 6/1. For a $100 investment, you could make two confident picks and wait for a reward of $600, with no juice or vig to consider.
Other parlay strategies focus mostly on turning solid individual propositions into successful parlay wagers in order to chase a larger return for less risk. Using an example from above, a bettor interested in turning their Spurs and Cavs 2-team moneyline parlay into an outlay with an even larger possible reward could add a wager to form a 3-team parlay and break the bets up into their most advantageous odds formats.
It may be best to wager the point spread on San Antonio and Cleveland (as they are clear favorites), but the addition of an underdog moneyline bet to form a 3-team parlay means much larger potential profits with the flexibility of the parlay to cover multiple lines.
Using a 3-team parlay that includes both moneyline and point spread odds makes sense in this case – rather than placing three distinct wagers (two point spreads, one moneyline), the better wins a substantially larger payout from a 3-team parlay than from three straight-up wagers. Because there’s no juice, this single bet costs much less than the three individual bets. Using a 3-team parlay also opens up opportunities for hedging, as described above.
Parlays are not new to the NBA, and they are not yet as popular a way to place NBA bets as straight-up wagers. For advanced NBA bettors who like a little more reward (and occasionally a little more risk overall) the parlay bet is the perfect transition from traditional to exotic wagers.