Week 4 of the college football season brings us some big matchups and some big games with upset potential. Let’s breakdown the top five underdogs to bet on this weekend in college football.
California (+2) at Ole Miss
Cal travels all the way to Mississippi to pick up another Power-5 conference win after its upset of Washington two weeks ago. Outside of that huge win for this program, the Golden Bears’ wins over UC Davis and North Texas have been less than impressive. However, Ole Miss has been even worse in my eyes.
A 15-10 loss to Memphis followed by a two-score win vs. the worst team in the SEC West by a landslide, Arkansas, and a close win over Southeastern Louisiana isn’t exactly an impressive resume. I think that this should be a sloppy and low-scoring football game that is decided by one possession late in the game. I think that Cal is the better team and will be the team to make that big play late, as they have shown the ability to do this in every game so far.
Michigan State at Northwestern (+9.5)
Michigan State is coming off of its first true test of the season that resulted in a heartbreaking loss at home for the Spartans. While Michigan State is used to playing in tough games, I think that this game should take a toll on them and could limit their ability to jump out to an early lead, especially on the road for an 11 am CST kickoff in Evanston.
Northwestern has looked really bad on offense to start the season, but Hunter Johnson should eventually start to flash some of the 5-star talent that he entered college with. I think that Northwestern should improve over time, and it is getting no respect in this game.
Michigan State could not move the ball last year, and now in their only test of the season, we saw similar issues. Northwestern beat Michigan State by 10 in East Lansing last year, and I think projecting a 20-point swing with home-field advantage is a massive overreaction.
Kentucky (+6) at Mississippi State
This game is yet another question mark because I think that the Wildcats should be favored in this matchup. Kentucky lost a few stars from last year’s team, but this football team has more talent than Mississippi State, which just lost to Kansas State.
The loss to Florida was not a great one, but most of the Gators’ damage did come with a backup QB that no one had really seen too much of before that performance. This wasn’t a good showing, but it wasn’t as bad as Mississippi State’s loss to Kansas State at home.
Mississippi State is struggling to beat teams like Louisiana Lafayette by 6, nevermind Kentucky. I love the Wildcats here.
Notre Dame (+14) at Georgia
There is a gap in talent in this game, but I am skeptical of how much of it we will see in this game. For the past few years, I have been heavily critical of Kirby Smart and company’s ability to create explosive plays via the scheme of their playcalling.
Usually, Georgia creates big plays because of the talent level on the team, but I think that ND is talented enough and well-coached enough to stop most of those big plays in this game. The question is, can Georgia pull out their “good playbook” that we have seemingly seen in the first half or so vs. Alabama in their last two matchups?
I am still not ready to trust Georgia in a huge game like this, and I like the Fighting Irish to hang around in this game.
Oklahoma State (+6) at Texas
I think that Texas is the better football team, and I expect them to win this game. However, this game will likely look like other recent Big 12 matchups where the first team to string together stops is the team that wins the game.
Texas has more defensive talent and is likely more apt to create turnovers, but that is the only huge edge we have here. When I say that, I mean that the differential in skill positions and scheme are mitigated due to the fact that both teams are going to score here like crazy. The team that creates the pick-6 or the stop on 4th-and-2 should win this game.
I think this will be Texas, but the line should be closer to -2 than -6, so I have to ride with the Cowboys in this spot.