Week 7 of the college football season is by far the best slate of the year so far for fans, with several big-time games and a lot of top teams playing legitimate competition. This means that we are due for an upset or two this week, and I love a lot of these underdogs this week.
Oklahoma vs. Texas (+10.5)
The Red River Rivalry is back with another ranked matchup between two of college football’s best programs. No. 11 Texas comes into this game as a significant underdog, and I love the Longhorns to keep this one competitive.
If Texas was healthy in the secondary, I think I would have a significant bet on Texas as an outright bet in this game, but that is not the case. Texas is struggling with injuries in the secondary, and I think that this will allow Jalen Hurts to continue to put up crazy statistics for No. 6 Oklahoma.
However, I do think that Hurts will become limited as a passer against more athletic defenses. Hurts does not have the arm talent to fit balls into tight windows, and this offense is designed to open up huge throwing windows. At some point, I expect Hurts to look bad against a good secondary that has the athleticism to make up ground on these downfield passes.
I do think Texas will force a turnover or two, but I think that it will still be a good day for the Sooners offense. The Texas offense will continue to look good, but it is not an offense that is going to dominate every drive. I expect a one-possession game here.
Michigan State (+10.5) at Wisconsin
I think that Wisconsin has been great this year, but I do think that they match up poorly with Michigan State in this spot. The No. 8 Badgers are a smash-mouth, running football team that does not do a ton of creative things on the offensive side of the football. Michigan State is incredibly gap sound in its run fits and should provide a real challenge to Wisconsin’s run game.
My biggest question is on the other side of the ball. Last week, Michigan State struggled to score on Ohio State, but I actually walked away with the innovation that seems to be occurring on Michigan State’s offense. While we didn’t see it come to fruition last week, I think we may see the Spartans put up more points than the books think, resulting in a cover here.
Nebraska (+7.5) at Minnesota
This line is just way too big. At this point, we do not know if Adrian Martinez will play in this game, but he has struggled much more than expected anyways this season. If Martinez plays, this becomes a LOCK, but I am going to sprinkle here regardless.
Minnesota and Nebraska are similar teams overall from a raw talent perspective, but Minnesota is riding a 5-0 record that is just overinfluencing the line here. I get the better coaching staff on similar teams +7.5? I’ll jump on that any day of the week.
Florida (+13.5) at LSU
This game is going to be really interesting because I would have never expected to be on this side of this game. I think No. 7 Florida is bad, but I think that we could see No. 5 LSU exposed on a few fronts here.
LSU’s passing game has been great, but basically everything else has NOT. LSU struggles to run the ball right now, and they are not playing good defense anywhere, even with elite individual talent on the field.
Florida has enough players on this team to make plays against LSU, and I have a sneaky suspicion that we could possibly see this LSU passing attack struggle against a much better defense than it played in Austin. LSU and Joe Burrow have more wholesale changes to the passing game, but I don’t think that this offense is AS innovative as a few of the best teams in the country.
I expect a few turnovers on both sides and a game that just stays too close throughout to bank on a cover from the Tigers.
Florida State (+27) at Clemson
Yes, Florida State is not a good football team, but Florida State has MORE raw talent on their roster than No. 2 Clemson, according to composite recruiting rankings coming out of high school. Now, we all have to understand that coaching and development matters, but is it worth 27 points?
There is this notion that Clemson can just overpower its way to wins, and I just do not think that is the case with this roster. It’s not as physically dominant as it has been in years past, and now we have a Florida State team with equal talent as 27-point underdogs?
Florida State should show up to this game like it is the Super Bowl, and I think that we continue to see Clemson show weaknesses moving forward. Coming off of a bye, is it possible that Clemson comes out and makes a statement vs. a poorly coached team? Sure, but I really expect this to be relatively close going into the second half.