Another week of college football is here, and this slate is all over the board. We have a top 10 matchup to break down, along with a few other interesting spots. We also have a lot of huge numbers on the board that look a little intriguing as well.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-18)
This number isn’t pretty at all, and you should not feel super comfortable with this line. However, just because you are not comfortable does not mean that you should not be intrigued. Ohio State has covered the spread in eight out of 10 games this season. That is impressive in its own right, but which games have they not covered?
They failed to cover against Florida Atlantic, where they were up 28-0 in the first nine minutes of the game, and against Rutgers, where after kicking the ball off to start the game, Ohio State was up 14-0 after just three and a half minutes.
This team has covered with ease in every other game this season, and they have only lost covers in cupcake spots where they got backdoored in garbage time.
This line is not big enough for a second-string backdoor, and that means I will continue to lay it with the Buckeyes until they prove me wrong. This is one of the best rushing offenses in the country against one of the best run defenses in the country, and I think this is the only place of concern for the Buckeyes.
The conditions look like they could be a bit wet, and this could lead to a run-heavy game, which would benefit the Nittany Lions from a personnel perspective and from a score perspective. I will likely wait this line out based on the rain and just try to nail the best price. If we see better conditions come Saturday morning, I will hammer this game.
Texas A&M Aggies (+13.5) at Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia is the better football team in this matchup, but I think that Texas A&M could play spoiler throughout this game. This game is almost 100 percent dependent on Kellen Mond for me, and I am okay with that simply because I think that Mond has the upside to win this game for the Aggies.
Georgia is basically a worse version of Clemson, with specifically a worse passing game. The Tigers were only able to score 24 against Texas A&M, and the personnel gap is very similar in this game.
What most people won’t discuss about that game is that Texas A&M played HORRIBLY and still stayed with Clemson throughout the game without letting them get a massive lead. If Mond plays average in this game, which for Mond means multiple wow plays and multiple dreadful plays, I think the Aggies cover the number here.
If Mond plays his best game of the season, I think the Aggies pull off another big upset in Athens on Saturday.
Arkansas Razorbacks (+44) at LSU Tigers
Are you ready to have some fun, because I sure am. LSU is coming off its biggest win in recent memory, and then followed it up with a game that scored 95 total points. LSU is going to be battered and bruised after these two games, and I think that it will take it really easy on its starters for this game.
The LSU starting defense has been bad all season, as they showed last week against a bad Ole Miss offense. I don’t think that the starters play more than a half, and I think that Arkansas could even score on them from time to time.
The LSU backups must be really bad with the starting unit that they are employing, and Arkansas should only need three scores to cover this with ease after the starters leave at halftime for LSU. This number is too big for this LSU defense.