Take a look at our Daily Fantasy Sports Lineup Tips for the National Football League – Sunday October 7, 2018:
Cam Newton is probably my top QB on the slate given what we have seen from the Panthers and Giants this year. The Giants have been hurt pretty heavily by mobile QBs. Even guys like Blake Bortles have had success running against them in a limited role. With McCaffrey emerging as a true running threat, defenses have had to focus on him in option situations and this may be the thing Newton is best at. Newton has multi-TD upside in a game where I think the Panthers will be able to move the ball well for most of the game.
I still like Patrick Mahomes in this situation. We have seen good offenses torch the Jags from time to time and I think this Chiefs team has the same options. The Chiefs offense is very similar to the Steelers offense in recent years, but I think Pittsburg is more talented at skill positions and the Chiefs are better in play design. This excess of options has hurt the Jags in the past. They prefer to play 2-3 clear offensive options and shut them down. I think Mahomes may move the ball and score 3 or 4 times or more by the end of this game.
Blake Bortles is probably the cash QB for a lot of players this week. We have seen over and over that the Jags seemingly change the gameplan completely without Fournette in the lineup, which is really a bad idea if you ask me. Regardless, Bortles seems to sling it around without Fournette and this Chiefs defense is definitely not one to shy away from. If we see 40 pass attempts here, Bortles should smash his price again
I am a big fan of the top 3 running backs on most slates in Gurley, Gordon, and McCaffrey. The usage is there for all of these guys and I wouldn’t be surprised with a massive number from any of the 3. CMC has struggled to get into the end zone, but I think that changes this week, as the opportunities have been there. Gurley and Gordon both have 30 touch, 7 catch, 200 total yard, and 3 TD upside in great spots for both of them. I think for the most part I will play the one that fits in my lineup the best.
There are conflicting reports on Joe Mixon, but from what I have seen, he should be just fine to go this week. They want to ease him, but without Gio, I don’t think they will. Mark Walton is the other option they have and he only made the 53-man roster because the wanted to keep 3 RBs. He isn’t good. Mixon had a chip in his MCL that had to be taken out via surgery.
Supposedly, this is not a big deal at all and he should be just fine this week according to what I have seen from former NFL doctors. If that is the case, I love Mixon this week. Mixon is going to be a bell-cow back this season and I expect him to see over 25 touches in this spot if they use him as if he’s 100% healthy. The Dolphins have a great corner in Xavien Howard who should shadow A.J. Green and open up opportunities for the Bengals to involve Mixon in the passing game.
My sneaky play at the bottom of the player pool is Derrick Henry. I have been a very big critic of Henry ever since college. I just have never been impressed. He put up monster lines of 200 yards often, but with 40+ carries and a dominant line. We have seen time and time again that Henry has struggled to succeed in the NFL. This week, I think he scores 2 TD vs. a bad Bills team. The Titans should be able to move the ball here and if they get stopped on the 2-yard line, Henry will score the TD. Henry’s touches have been very game-script dependent, which bodes well for him in a game vs. the Bills. Henry has been predominantly used while the Titans have the lead. I hope for 18 carries for 66 yards and 2 TD’s and that would be just fine with me.
The top of the board is littered with great plays this week so I will try to lay them all out for you in a list starting at the top of the tier:
Odell Beckham Jr.: Seeing great volume, projected to be trailing, hasn’t had that BIG game yet.
Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs: Eagles are a pass funnel defense and the Vikings only want to throw. Should be trailing, both see massive volume and are basically interchangeable to me
Davante Adams: Rodgers has been complaining about the playcalling and the receivers recently. He trusts Adams and I think its possible that he forces him the ball 15-20 times in a close game.
Emmanuel Sanders: The Jets are probably the worst team against slot receivers in the league and Manny Sanders is one of the best. Should fit into game-script. Sander is clearly better than Thomas at this point and it’s only a matter of time Keenum starts leaning on Sanders more in this offense.
Tyreek Hill: VERY SKETCHY, but Ramsey is a big corner that could struggle with Hill’s speed, he has had problems with OBJ and AB agility in the past. I could see Tyreek going absolutely off on a talented Jags defense because he is basically unguardable in certain situations.
Tyler Boyd is another great option this week without Eifert, Ross, and Green drawing the horrible matchup. Boyd should see 10+ targets again and that is just insane for his price. It doesn’t feel great, but the numbers and matchups say to go for it yet again.
My two favorite punts this week and Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones. Sanu is in a dynamic offense that could easily score 40 points this week. The Falcons have seemingly reverted to just moving the ball all over the field and that means you should target the cheapest of them. This week, Sanu could have a Julio Jones stat line because of how the Falcons are distributing the ball. Jones is a good WR that has 2 TD upside in a close game vs. a sketchy secondary. Jones is also probably seen as the third option by most defenses, getting the worse corner in more matchups than not. I think Jones could easily post 6 for 74 and 2 TD’s this week, which is killer at most prices, nevermind $4.7K on DK.
Jimmy Graham is my favorite TE play on the slate based on possible usage and upside. Again, I think that Rodgers will want to target his best players more often in the red zone. Graham is one of those guys and this is a great game to attack. I think this game will be back and forth and if these teams convert early, it could get really high-scoring. Graham can score TD’s here and easily be the highest scoring TE on the week.
David Njoku is a GPP flyer that I think will go under-owned. Njoku is supremely talented and it seems like he should be better with Baker at the helm. I don’t think he’s a lock for 5 catches, but I’d be surprised if the targets aren’t there and he is easily the biggest red zone threat on this team with his size and athleticism compared to Landry, Callaway, and Higgins.