My favorite 2 quarterbacks are the two QBs in the highest total game of the weekend. Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck are head and shoulder above the rest of the QB options on the slate. Mahomes had the best fantasy season ever for quarterbacks, and there is absolutely no reason that the Colts shut him down here. The Colts have been solid defensively, especially over the last half of the season, but the Colts haven’t played a team like Mahomes and company. I think that they may struggle to make big plays. The Colts safety Malik Hooker, who is an elite pass defender who specializes in his range and speed has been really good at preventing these big plays. Hooker is questionable in this game. If he does play, I think Mahomes will have to complete more passes, but I still think he will have success regardless. Luck has struggled outdoors and in playoff games in his career, but I am not convinced that this will continue. The Chiefs’ defense is really not good, and I expect the Colts to have to put up a lot of points if they want to stay competitive.
Drew Brees is his own second tier this week. I think I like Brees if he is significantly lower-owned than the first two. In the first matchup with the Eagles, Brees had 363 yards and 4 TDs. I don’t think that is likely, but it’s clearly possible. Brees never forces targets, and the Eagles tried to eliminate Kamara and Thomas from the game plan. Brees simply went to other guys who went virtually uncovered with all the attention on the 2 start. I assume that the Eagles change plans, but if they don’t they will see similar results.
Ezekiel Elliott is a better option than Todd Gurley. I don’t even think it’s close if we are considering opportunity. The only thing that Gurley has is an elite offense that hands him free touchdowns on a weekly basis. The Cowboys get flooded on the goal line and use a lot of play-action and options to avoid getting stuffed with 11 guys running to stop Zeke as soon as the ball is snapped. I think the Rams are kept in check here, so the TD’s won’t get Gurley where he needs to be to beat Zeke.
The Chiefs’ RB situation is incredibly important this week. Damien Williams is the best PPD play on the slate almost everywhere if Spencer Ware doesn’t play. In week 17, Ware practiced in full and then didn’t play. Now, he has been limited in practice. If he is inactive, I love Williams everywhere. If Ware is active, I like Williams, but be careful. The Chiefs’ want this to be an RB-by-committee, but Williams has been so good that I doubt they get away from it.
I want a receiver from the Chiefs and the Saints on most lineups. I am not saying that both teams will go off, but I expect their passing games to be the most prolific. As I mentioned earlier, the Eagles paid a ton of attention to Michael Thomas in their first matchup. If they do this, we want Ted Ginn Jr. or even TreQuan Smith. I think that they should get away from this strategy because they lost 48-7 when they implemented this. If they do, Michael Thomas will destroy them. The best part about this is that Brees is willing to take what the defense gives him, so we should get one guy or the other targeted heavily.
Tyreek Hill is the best deep threat in the NFL because he is faster than whoever is defending him. The Colts are also really good at defending the deep ball. This matchup is strength vs. strength, but I think the personnel favors the Chiefs. Also, Travis Kelce should be open all over the place in this game if they continue this strategy. If you watched the Colts last week, Ryan Griffin was open all day, but Watson was really just bad in that game. I think Hill, Kelce, and Watkins are all incredibly viable in this spot.