Patrick Mahomes is in a dream defensive matchup. That is undeniable. The Raiders defense is one of the slower defenses in football. If this were a game that should be a 4-quarter game, I’d lock in Mahomes and probably Hill and deal with the salary constraints it leaves me with. I think Mahomes is a viable GPP play, but unnecessary to play in cash due to his price and the projected game script that makes it more unlikely for me that he just goes off in this game. However, at halftime, you may be upset that you don’t have Mahomes 19 fantasy points.
Cam Newton gets a nice spot vs. the Buccaneers on the road. Cam has historically struggled on the road in his career, but I am not concerned about that against this defense. The biggest thing I like about Cam here is that the Bucs’ defense has been running more man-to-man coverage recently. IF they continue this, there will be LOTS of room to run, which increases Cam’s upside significantly.
Andrew Luck has 3 or more passing touchdowns in every week since week 3. That is an incredible floor. Jacksonville is one of Luck’s worse performances during that period, and he still put up around 22 points. Luck is one of the safest plays on the board here at a very reasonable price.
Christian McCaffrey is my favorite play on the slate, and it’s what I have been saying all along. McCaffrey gets the elite touches that other backs have been getting, and McCaffrey is MORE explosive in my opinion. When CMC is getting this amount of touches vs. a bad defense that is playing man-to-man more often. CMC should eat in the passing game and always has the ability to break a long one in either aspect of the game.
Aaron Jones has suddenly been thrust into the main RB in the Packers system, and it is a fresh sight to see. We haven’t seen this type of running back usage from an Aaron Rodgers-led team in a long time. Jones is a massive favorite vs. a struggling Cardinals team who recently lost to the Raiders, who want to lose games.
Spencer Ware should be thrust into the Chiefs RB1 position after the sudden downfall of Kareem Hunt and his release from the team. Ware is a more than capable backup in one of the best spots you could ever ask for. He is a 15-16 point favorite vs. a horrible defense and defensive line. Ware will be the most popular play on the slate, but his ceiling and floor are much higher than anyone close to him. I expect he gets to be a similar price of Dalvin Cook or Aaron Jones as early as next week if he ends up taking over the Kareem Hunt role.
Tyreek Hill is very similar to Mahomes this week. Elite spot and elite talent, but not a great price or game script. Play or fade Tyreek knowing what you are getting into.
Emmanuel Sanders has seen 9, 6, and 12 targets since Demaryius Thomas was traded and I think we see double-digit targets in this game. The Bengals defense is giving up a historical amount of yardage and Sanders is a beast in the slot, which should give the Bengals trouble. I think the Broncos have a slight let down here, so I expect Manny to rack up catches while trying to stay ahead in a close game or catch up to the Bengals.
Chris Godwin should see an increase in snaps with DeSean Jackson being ruled out of this game. We have seen Godwin be a favorite in the red zone and now he should be in there a lot more often, making him a great option in the low tier.