This week has a lot of interesting matchups that I don’t particularly love. We will continue on with the 5 picks this week, as we can compare to a bunch of other contests within the industry. I think there are some more matchups this week that we really like
Eagles @ Buccaneers (+3)
I feel like I’m chasing the Buccaneers, but I would’ve been here without that win. I just think the Eagles are not that good. Their O-line and D-line are really good, but the rest is “eh.” Nick Foles is a very boom or bust QB and I think he’s more bust than boom. The receivers are fine, but they’re not even a top 10 group in the NFL. The secondary isn’t great either. The Bucs defense is bad, but I don’t trust Foles to take advantage of it. The Bucs’ offense has a new play-caller and they destroyed the solid Saints defense. I think the combination of Evans and Godwin can hurt this secondary enough to cover and win this game outright.
Panthers (+6) @ Falcons
The Panthers are a pretty decent-sized road dog in this spot vs. the Falcons. I think this game will be high-scoring and I think the spread is too big. The Panthers offense should be benefitted by the dome just like the Falcons do. The Falcons offense should roll here, but I think the Panthers can keep up. The Falcons have shown a complete lack of competence in the red zone since losing Kyle Shanahan to the 49ers. This will come in handy in a 6 point spread.
The Falcons Deion Jones is now on injured reserve and he was a massive part of this defense and this game. Jones often covers RB’s out of the backfield and TEs in coverage. He is very good at doing this, possibly the best in the NFL. With McCaffrey coming in this week, the Falcons were relying on him to shut him down. I hated this matchup, but now it will open up many options for the Panthers and force the Falcons D to change. I think this will fluster the Falcons and cause holes in the defense. I also really like the over here if you’re into that kind of stuff.
Patriots (-2) @ Jaguars
The Patriots are just so much more consistent that I’ll take the small spread on the better team in my eyes. The Patriots’ defense looked improved last week while the Jags slot defense looked like it struggled vs. the Giants. The Patriots are students of the game and will be all over that slot in this game. That could be with Burkhead, White, Gronk, Hogan, or even Dorsett. This will cause problems for the Jags’ defense and eventually win the Pats the game. I can’t trust Bortles to do anything, so I’m continuously skeptical of the Jags offense in games I think they will need to score.
Raiders @ Broncos (-6)
The Broncos offense was one of my strongest takes last week and it really paid off in daily fantasy. This week, I expect them to score all over this bad Raiders team. Emmanuel Sanders had a great game and I love him for the rest of this year based on what I expect to see in terms of target share. The Raiders couldn’t get any pressure and I think that Keenum will thrive in this matchup as well. On defense, the Broncos are still stout and capable of shutting down an old RB and a struggling passing game. Also, if you like trends, the Broncos are dominant at home early in the year due to the altitude.
Seahawks @ Bears (-3.5)
The Seahawks just aren’t very good and the Bears are a solid team. Without Doug Baldwin, the Seahawks are really going to have to rely on the deep ball and I just don’t like that concept while getting rushed by Khalil Mack and company. On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense showed life vs. a Packers’ D that I expect to be better this year. They did stall in the red zone multiple times, but I don’t think that will be a long-term issue, so I think the books are reading a little too much into the offensive struggles later in that Sunday night game.