NFL Week 3 – Best Bets Against the Spread

I bounced back in a big way after a less than stellar Week 1, going 3-0 with wins coming on the Rams +5.5, Chargers +6, and Eagles +3. Hopefully, I can come close to repeating my undefeated Week 2. Let’s make some money baby!

 

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)  Total: 44.5

After losing to Arizona to open the season, the Chargers faced the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2 and pulled off a stunning upset of the defending Super Bowl Champions. Quarterback Phillip Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates rolled back the clock, connecting for three touchdowns in the victory.

The Bills are 2-0 after beating the Chicago Bears in overtime in Week 1 and handling the Miami Dolphins in their home opener 29-10. Rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins had a huge game in last week’s victory, along with running back C.J. Spiller, who returned a kickoff 103 yards for a score.

This is a classic letdown spot for San Diego. I loved them as live dogs last week, but they’re much more vulnerable on the road against a Bills team that is playing fantastic right now. Also, they lost their workhorse running back last week in Ryan Mathews, who will be sidelined 4-5 weeks with a strained MCL.

The Bills are an especially strong team at home and have a ferocious pass rush that should give San Diego’s offensive line issues. Other than an outlier game from Gates, much of San Diego’s passing attack was held in check, including top target Keenan Allen.

Defensively, Buffalo has allowed just one pass play of 20-yards or more and have the running game to keep San Diego’s offense off the field. E.J. Manuel is always going to a hamper their offensive upside as team, but the Bills should have no trouble scoring points on Sunday.

They’re going to more motivated than ever to start the season 3-0 in front of their home fans.

Pick: Bills -1 (-120)

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-4)  Total: 42

After flourishing in Andy Reid’s first year at the helm, the Chiefs look more like the team they were two years ago, when they finished the season with a 2-14 record. They fell to 0-2 last week after losing at Denver, one week after a defeat their home opener to the Tennessee Titans, 26-10.

Miami started off the season with a bang, beating the division rival New England Patriots 33-20 in front of their home crowd in Week 1. However, their Week 2 loss against Buffalo proved to be one of the worst performances last week.

They were inefficient in the passing game and got steamrolled by the Bills on defense. They also lost lead running back Knowshon Moreno for 4-8 weeks with a dislocated elbow.

With all that said, I love Miami in this spot at home. The Chiefs benefitted heavily from an easy schedule last season and have lost a lot of the offensive line that made them such a force offensively. Running back Jamaal Charles, the main man in KC’s offense is also questionable to play this week.

As I mentioned in my above blurb about the Bills, their defense is excellent when it comes to pressuring the QB. Dolphins’ receivers were also well covered downfield and even when Tannehill hit them accurately, they dropped several balls.

I don’t see that happening this week. Tannehill should have a clean pocket, and the Dolphins should have their way with a Chiefs’ defense that has been one of the worst in the league since about halfway through last season.

I like Miami to dominate at home and improve to 2-1 on the season.

Pick: Dolphins -4 (-110)

Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots (-14.5)  Total: 46.5

Oakland’s start to the season hasn’t been anything that most didn’t expect. After losing at the New York Jets Week 1, the Raiders got throttled at home against the visiting Houston Texans 30-14. The Texans were a 2-14 team last season.

New England is 1-1 after dropping their opener to Atlanta, but rebounded in Week 2 against the Vikings. The Patriots thoroughly dominated Minnesota on the ground and the air. Steven Ridley rushed for 101 yards on 25 carries and wide receiver Julian Edelman added six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown.

This one isn’t as much about the matchup, but rather than the point spread. New England will win this game, but anytime there is a double-digit point spread in the NFL, I’m looking to take the underdog.

It’s just too early in the season to give the Patriots this much credit, despite how poor the Raiders have looked through the first two weeks. This is the NFL. Every team has professional caliber players, despite how poor one team may look compared to the others. I think Oakland has a solid chance to keep this one between two touchdowns.

Pick: Raiders +14.5 (-105)

 

 

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