Week 3 is here and there are a lot of different things to look at this week. There is a lot of mid-tier backup running backs that may play. Some big-time games that are expected to provide fantasy goodness. This slate sets up to be a week where the picks matter more than the roster construction in a lot of scenarios.
The chalk at QB this week is Patrick Mahomes and I don’t think I can argue with it. Mahomes has been extremely impressive as of late and this matchup is just as easy as the first 2 weeks. Mahomes has been on the good side of touchdown variance. He is not going to produce TD’s at this clip, but he should be able to continue the yardage he has been putting up to a degree and he can run for a TD here and there. If you fade Mahomes, I really like looking at Kareem Hunt to get TD exposure to the Chiefs.
The rest of the QB pool is really concentrated in a similar price range, which is why I will generally pay up for QB this week more than most. If I was to go down a little, it would be to someone like Goff, Bortles, or Ryan. All three of these QB’s are in situations that are good scoring opportunities for them. Bortles may be without Fournette, which has massively helped his production. Goff is on a great team that should put points up. Ryan is in a game that projects to be a shootout without one of his top RB’s.
So, everyone wants to talk about Alvin Kamara against the Falcons’ defense that just got trashed by McCaffrey. Now, I am extremely skeptical of this stance and am actually again looking towards CMC over Kamara. CMC got these targets because the Panthers were trailing and Cam doesn’t trust anyone else. CMC is playing 90% of the snaps and runs a bunch of 2-yard routes after staying in pass-protection for a few seconds. This is not how the Saints use Kamara. I think that the Panthers will continue to use CMC like this basically regardless of the matchup and the Saints will not use Kamara like this. Kamara is in a good spot, but his lack of touches is notable and intentional.
THE BACKUPS. Tevin Coleman, Gio Bernard, Letavius Murray, Corey Clement, and T.J. Yeldon are all in play this weekend assuming their counterpart is unavailable to go. I really think that you will need at least one of these guys to win a GPP this week. They all possess a clear road to 2 TD’s and that is GPP winning upside at their prices. Let’s try to simplify the matchups
Coleman: (Pros) High-scoring game, still typically involved in the offense if Freeman is healthy. (Cons) Still splitting carries/touches, not the definite goal-line guy.
Bernard: (Pros) seemingly the 3-down back in a close game, doesn’t get game-scripted out (Cons) faces strong Panthers linebacking group.
Murray: (Pros) Lead back in a blowout game vs. a terrible team. (Cons) Not seen as a great athlete and as involved in the passing game.
Clement: (Pros) faces horrible Colts defense and is a well-rounded back (Cons) Who knows what scrub the Eagles will play for 40% of the snaps off the practice squad.
Yeldon: (Pros) Favored home team and clear lead back. (Cons) Less involved than starter when on field, not super explosive runner.
These top guys are still all great, but there is one that I really want if the ownership is low.
Tyreek Hill is insanely talented and I can’t wait to see him face a bad defense that doesn’t attempt to scheme him out. I think that may be the 49ers this week. If that is the case, Hill can have a massive game at low-ownership because of the price. If Hill goes off, I guarantee you won’t care how much he cost at the end of the week.
Nelson Agholor is a guy that should stay really involved with Wentz coming back. Agholor had proven to be the go-to guy for now and I don’t think that stops here vs. a terrible Colts secondary in a spot that I think we see a close game where neither team has very good RBs.
If Marquise Goodwin is healthy on Sunday, I will have a lot of him and Hill together. They both have a little rivalry going as two of the fastest guys in the league and Goodwin is in an elite spot as Jimmy G’s go-to guy against a poor defense. Goodwin is another guy that can win the week at any price tag if he has a ceiling game.
I really like both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp in this game. Both of them have seen a lot of action and are basically always on the field. If this is one of those weeks where Goff throws for 4 TDs instead of Gurley running for 3, I think both of these WRs could get loose in the end-zone for a big fantasy game.
There are a bunch of “viable options” at TE this week, but I think the guy I plan on being heaviest on as of now is Eric Ebron. With Jack Doyle being ruled out. Ebron should be in line for upwards of 6-8 targets and should be able to see a throw or 2 in the end-zone. Without a running game and vs. the Eagles D-line. The Colts will have to be throwing a lot of quick routes over the middle, which would make Ebron a clear top option on the week.
Other TEs I will be sprinkling in: Kelce, Reed, Burton, and Ian Thomas
Best of luck in Week 3!