Week 5 provides a bunch of rather close matchups that should be great to watch. Picking them, on the other hand, may become somewhat difficult. We are starting to get to the point of the season where matchups are becoming clear and determining who will have the advantage in certain situations is the key.
Jaguars Vs. Chiefs (-3)
This is all about the stylist matchups to me. The Jaguars defense is great and so is the Chiefs offense. The biggest edge here comes down to game planning and I think the Chiefs have the upper hand. The Jaguars defense is full of monsters and it’s obvious when watching them. The issue with this matchup is their lack of change in their defensive scheme. The Jaguars basically do their thing and let the offense try to beat it. I think the Chiefs can. The Chiefs offense has been extremely creative which has been the Achilles heel for the Jags defense. The Jags have the talent to stop a smash-mouth run game and shut-down the big, elite possession receivers. Jalen Ramsey can’t mark Tyreek Hill step-for-step. They can’t mark any of these speed receivers. This Chiefs team should be able to exploit holes in the defense that most teams cannot.
Falcons (+3.5) Vs. Steelers
This spot is simple. Two good offenses and two bad defenses. I think this game is a shootout. The Falcons defense is worse, but Big Ben is just more careless with the ball. In a shootout that is constantly back and forth, a turnover can be the difference. The Falcons offense is starting to look more and more like the 2016 team that was incredibly efficient. I don’t think they will get back there, but they have 6 legitimate offensive options to go to at any time with a very capable QB getting them the ball. I think the Falcons put up enough points here that +3.5 is just too much in what feels like a toss-up game.
Raiders Vs. Chargers (-5)
The Chargers are just superior to the Raiders in every single aspect of this football game. The Chargers also are most likely getting Joey Bosa back, which should be a massive help. The Chargers defense has struggled much more than expected this season and Bosa is a big part of that. The Chargers defense plays a lot of man coverage, which really puts their corners on an island. If the line can create pressure, this coverage can be lights out. Without Bosa, it has taken the Chargers way too long to get to the QB, forcing Casey Heyward and others to cover elite receivers for 6-8 seconds downfield. If that changes as I expect it to this week, the Raiders may be in for a rude awakening. The Chargers offense is also full of weapons. Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Melvin Gordon are way too much to handle for the slow Raiders defense, not to mention some of their more ancillary pieces.
Rams (-7) Vs. Seahawks
I will be fading the Seahawks and playing the Rams all season, so this seems like the perfect storm. If you have watched the Rams offense play this year, you understand how good they are at exploiting matchups. The Seahawks defense is old and slow and just lost their best player so far this season. The Rams will put up a lot of points in this game and the Seahawks don’t have the weapons to strike back. The Seahawks are coming off of 2 close game wins vs. 2 bad teams. I think if they lose either one of those games this line is closer to 10. The Seahawks could easily have lost last week to who most people believe to be a bottom 3 team in the NFL with a first-time starter at the helm. This team is not good at all and I think that will be on display on Sunday.
Cowboys (+3.5) Vs. Texans
This is another line that is just a little too big for me. I like getting that 3.5 number in games that seem to be close to a toss-up. The Cowboys finally started getting Zeke involved in the slot last game and I think he can torch the Texans if he is used in that role again. The biggest thing I see in this game is the line play. The Cowboys have a massive advantage on the defensive line and I think it will really stall the Texans offense. I love the Cowboys line to get a ton of pressure on Watson and force a pick or two in this game because of it. If that happens, this game should be a field goal game either way. Take the points in this one.