The NFL season is about four months away, but win totals are a hot topic after the full schedules were released last week. While we always knew what teams each team would see on their schedule, the timing and set up of a schedule can move the lines a little bit.
Washington Redskins (Over 5)
Let’s start this one off with a bang and take one of the lowest totals on the board with a team that looked incompetent most of last season. I really like the set up for the Redskins moving into year one with Ron Rivera at the helm, and I think that they are set up to make a jump.
Last season, they ended the year with a rookie quarterback, three rookie receivers, and a rookie tight end taking a lot of the snaps, and they were much more competitive than people would give them credit for. After starting out the season 1-9, the Redskins changed the offense to help rookie Dwayne Haskins and then beat the Lions and Panthers before losing at Green Bay by five, vs. Philadelphia by 10, and against the Giants in overtime with Haskins in the second half.
They now should get Derrius Guice back alongside Bryce Love. They also drafted Chase Young and multiple receivers to help fill the void.
The Redskins’ front seven should be a top-five unit in football next year, and I think that can really change the dynamic of the team moving forward. The NFC East isn’t the toughest division in football, and I think that they will be competitive a lot this year. I would bet this number through 6.
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Los Angeles Chargers (Over 7.5)
I think that this is just an overreaction to the loss of Philip Rivers, who really didn’t do anything to win them games in recent history. I think that Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of riding a great roster to a .500 record, and I think that the Chargers are in a position to let that happen.
While they just drafted Justin Herbert, I think that he will have to beat out Taylor to start, and it’s good for the team if that were to happen anyways.
The Chargers have played in so many close games in recent years, and I think that the variance will turn around on them at some point, and they will pop up to be the 10-win team that their talent suggests. While the AFC West is a division that most have pegged as a stronger division than last year with both the Raiders and Broncos improving through development and drafting, I still like the Chargers as the second-best team in the division.
Tennessee Titans (Under 8.5)
I would say that this is simply a short on the overall talent of this team and their quarterback situation. Ryan Tannehill was great to close the season last year, but I don’t think that this team can sit back and relax with Tannehill now locked up for years and almost $120 million.
If they still had Marcus Mariota as a backup, I would probably feel a bit different just because they would lose less if an injury were to occur.
Derrick Henry put this team on his back at times, but again, I don’t think that it’s a viable strategy to implement for 16 games next season. The AFC South is not a scary place with the Jaguars and Texans making interesting decisions recently, but I still don’t love this team’s situation.
The Colts are the clear favorite for me in this division, while Deshaun Watson obviously has the potential to will Houston to wins as well, making nothing too easy.