The final game of the NFL season will be next Sunday night when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV in Miami. The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites, and the total is currently sitting at 54.5 after opening at 52-52.5 at most spots.
Prop Betting Bonanza
I love NFL prop bets because they just aren’t usually as sharp as the lines on the game, and the Super Bowl provides more prop bets than almost any other sporting event in the world. These strange props are often a bit out there, but there are always a few edges that you can jump on with the books providing so many options.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 237.5 Passing Yards
I really do not understand this line at all, as Garoppolo threw for over that number 10 times in the regular season, but I will not complain about the number that is listed at -105 right now. This is expected to be a and, and the 49ers are expected to be in a close game, unlike the last two weeks when the 49ers dominated their opponents for the entire game.
While I am not trying to use this to persuade you, Garoppolo threw for 188 yards on the Chiefs in the third preseason game in just a half, and I really don’t understand how we assume that the 49ers will just throw the ball 11 times again in this game.
Jimmy G has been more than willing to sling the ball around in close games this year, and the line suggests that should be the case here.
Tyreek Hill Over 75 Receiving Yards
The 49ers have been great in pass defense this year with their combination of secondary play and a great pass rush, but I think that Tyreek Hill has the skill and speed to cause problems for the 49ers’ scheme.
Richard Sherman has been great, but he is relatively slow, and the second cornerback spot in San Francisco has been up for grabs late in the season. I expect Hill to move around a lot and be heavily involved in this game.
This game is very interesting because of the contrasting styles played by these two teams, while both teams have gotten similar results recently. We know that the 49ers are much more comfortable leading, and that is one of the most interesting storylines of this game.
I do think that it is the most likely reason for a blowout is that the Chiefs get an early lead, and it forces the 49ers into doing things that they aren’t really used to, although I do not think that this is likely.
The 49ers haven’t trailed or been in a ton of shootouts this season, but they have been able to throw the ball around at times this season with just fine results.
I don’t think that the 49ers are in dire need of an early lead, but I do think that they want to control the tempo of the game. The Chiefs, as we have seen the last few weeks, seem to be very comfortable while trailing.
Right now, I don’t have a strong lean on the spread, and neither does the money, as we have not seen this line move at all this week. I will lean towards the Chiefs -1.5 because of their ability to score with a ferocity in every single situation.
The 49ers have not been asked to rely on their young and inexperienced quarterback yet in the playoffs, and I do think it’s possible that will result in issues for San Francisco.