The NFL season is only a week away, and that means that we can finally really start looking into week by week matchups. Be careful with your bankroll early in the year, but also understand that Vegas has historically been much worse in the first few weeks of the season. I am excited to break some of these lines down and find value.
Ravens (-5.5) vs. Dolphins
I think that the Ravens are one of the more polarizing teams in the league based on the amount of talk surrounding Lamar Jackson. I tend to be a bit lower on the Ravens as a whole because I think that Lamar will just never become an elite passing quarterback.
That being said, the Ravens are facing the worst team in football with a new head coach. I want to jump on the “fade Miami” train as early and often as possible, and I think that this number is just too good to pass up.
I would’ve put this line over a touchdown with the way the Ravens defense plays, and I just don’t buy that the Dolphins are going to come up with some elaborate plan to stop LJ. I think Jackson can be limited by elite schemes, but I don’t think that is what the Dolphins will have for him.
I love the Ravens here at -5.5 in Miami.
Titans vs. Browns (-5.5)
I am really excited to see just how different the Browns offense looks this season with the addition of air raid-centric coach Todd Monken. Mayfield had a ton of success in a similar scheme in college, and I am expecting more of the same this year.
The Browns have continued to add talent to an already deep team, and I just think that this offense will be too much to handle for Tennessee. The Titans are almost always one of the least talked about teams in terms of national attention, and I don’t foresee this team changing that narrative. The Titans are not anything special, and I don’t believe that they can lock up this Browns offense.
The addition of Odell gives the Browns an elite deep threat along with a reliable target on shorter routes. This is the difference-maker that this team needed and I could see the Browns winning this one by double digits.
49ers (+1) vs. Buccaneers
This is probably the most puzzling number on the board, and I am just going to attack it until I see any reason to doubt myself. The 49ers are the more talented football team as a whole, and I think they should be close to a 3 point favorite on the road.
The Bucs have a new coach but don’t have a ton of defensive stars on the roster as is. I expect the 49ers to just come out and look like the obviously better team in this matchup. I LOVE the 49ers and I LOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE the price.
Giants vs. Cowboys (-7)
These teams are heading in different directions, and I don’t see a path where the Giants stay in this game the whole time. I think that there is already some pressure to start Daniel Jones based on his preseason performance, Unless Jones gets on the field in game 1, I think any Cowboys momentum will be amplified due to the Giants fan base not being on board with the Eli plan.
The Cowboys are in an elite spot for roster additions because they are not paying their QB or their running back very much money at all. This allows teams to go and spend big in free agency and add talent. The Cowboys are the much more talented team and should secure this one early.
Lions (-2.5) vs. Cardinals
This one is pretty simple for me. The Cardinals offensive line is still going to be horrible, and I think that this will result in bad results early for Kyler Murray. Murray is used to having all the time in the world to throw, and that is not the case anymore.
Even if Kyler sets the world on fire in week 1, which I do not expect, the Cardinals defense is also not talented at almost every position. If Kyler is the real deal, we will be able to still hope for the Lions to look impressive against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
I expect the Lions to throw a lot of pressure at Kyler in week 1, resulting in some bad plays that kill the Cardinals chances of staying too close. The Lions are one of the strongest plays of the week.