We all want to get rich quick when betting on the Super Bowl, but let’s not get carried away with betting some of the lines baiting people into thinking that is the reality. I love to try and find bets that are “mispriced,” but just because you think something will happen, it doesn’t mean the odds are off. I’m going to go into some props that you need to avoid, for your sanity and your pocketbook.
STOP BETTING ON THE COIN FLIP. It’s a simple request. This is always a popular prop for people that just want to bet on something, but you are just playing some rake. If you are dying to bet on the coin flip, find a friend at the party that wants the other side and do so without the rake. We can all get carried away with the gambling aspect, but just don’t give away your money in the process. If you must bet something based on the coin flip, try to find odds of the Patriots to score first or get the ball first. I believe that they are much more likely to choose to receiver, as they did in earlier against the Chargers.
Don’t bet on the halftime show either. You have no idea what shirt Adam Levine is going to wear or what song Maroon 5 will open with and you are going to be paying pretty significant rake there too. If you find 10’s of hours of Maroon 5 concerts and interviews and think you have caught onto something, more power to you.
Betting on defensive MVPs are a trap. Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that a defensive player cannot win the MVP of the Super Bowl, but I am saying that you don’t have a clue who it will be if they do. To win the Super Bowl MVP, the game will likely have to be low-scoring because if a position player scores 2 TDs or a QB throws for 3 TDs, they have a massive leg up on the defensive player. The only way a defensive guy wins is if he makes the game winning play and you have absolutely no idea who that will be.
I have had success betting on the National Anthem time with 20 minutes of research in recent years, but don’t bet on anything else like how long one word is or what color Gladys Knight is wearing. You don’t know and you don’t need to pay the rake on something that is simply nothing more than a complete guess.
The same thing goes with the announcer props. What tie will Tony Romo wear? I’m not sure that Tony Romo knows the answer to that right now. Will they mention the spread? How many times will they refer to Sean McVay’s age? I don’t know and neither do you. Stop throwing your money at things without a clue. There are two broadcast related things that I don’t completely hate. If you do your research on commercial props, there are a few that you can piece together with more certainty than any of these things. Don’t go all in on the rumors, but I don’t mind making the bet if you have some information. How many plays will Tony Romo predict? I think the over is good if you think the game is close and the complete opposite is true as well. Romo typically goes into coach mode in big moments/situations. If it is 35-14, Romo isn’t going to be calling out the HB sweep on 2nd and 12.
Don’t max out on the alternative lines because they have longer odds. The odds are longer for a reason. If you think the Rams kill the Patriots and you want to take the -7, go for it but bet them on the moneyline or the spread too.
You can bet on who the MVP will thank first. There is only one bet that I can somewhat understand. Listen, these guys don’t have a speech prepared, so you aren’t going to get some type of edge here from that standpoint. I think Tom Brady has cashed 3 different options in this category in 4 MVPs. I see family at +420 and I really don’t mind that because the odds are long and I think it is much higher than that.
Props involving Todd Gurley are just something you should avoid here. There is a ton of variance in RB props anyways. We have no idea what is going on with him and injured or not, C.J. Anderson has been just fine. I have seen all over that Gurley was banged up and all this narrative talk that is pretty speculative. Gurley and the Rams insist he was fine and he reached max speed for the season in the week before that game, indicating he is fine. If he is fine, he could blow up, but C.J. Anderson hasn’t really seemed like a downgrade, even if Gurley is playing fine. I would just want nothing to do with either Anderson or Gurley.