The NFL season is about halfway over, and that means that we are really starting to see teams rise to the top of the Super Bowl odds. There are still two remaining undefeated teams, but the odds suggest that there are a lot of teams that have a real chance to win the Super Bowl as of right now. Thirteen different teams have odds at +3000 or better to win, which is a lot of teams, considering there is one at +225.
The New England Patriots (+225), New Orleans Saints (+500), and San Francisco 49ers (+700) are the three teams in the NFL with odds better than +1000, and they are the clear favorites at this point. There is only one loss between these three teams, and it came in a game where Saints quarterback Drew Brees was hurt early in the game.
The Patriots are the clear favorites with Tom Brady at the helm and one of the most dominant defenses we have seen in recent history. I think that overall, this team is incredibly good, but slight overrated right now.
This defense has been outstanding, but it has been tested about as little as possible, and I am slightly concerned that they could struggle to dominate a great offense, and this could lead to more concerns. However, their overall discipline leads me to assume that they will not completely fall apart against elite offenses.
The 49ers have a similar story, with a dominant defense supported by a methodical offense. I like the 49ers as a bet later in the season after they take a few losses down the stretch, and we get a better number on them. This defense has been very disruptive all season, and I expect this team to continue this dominance with the overall talent on the defensive side of the ball, but I will hold off on the bet right now.
The Saints are my favorite bet right now at +500. This team has looked complete on both sides of the ball, and I love their offensive structure and philosophies. I don’t see many losses on their schedule moving forward, and they are in a great spot to get home field through the NFC playoffs.
Drew Brees is back healthy, and I expect Alvin Kamara back next week, which is perfect for a team looking to win out on their way to the top seed in the NFC.
I am going to use this to address my two favorite bets under the top three teams that are not currently seen as being a favorite.
Kansas City is basically a slightly better version of their team that almost beat the Patriots last season in overtime. When they are at +1200, and the Pats are +225, I have to sprinkle on the Chiefs to win because this game would be seen as really close once the Chiefs are healthy.
The Chiefs have played a lot of games without a key player on offense like Damien Williams, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and even Patrick Mahomes. Once they have all of their options, I expect them to be the best offense in football.
The Dallas Cowboys have been very hit or miss this year, and a lot of this has to do with the play-calling on the offensive side of the ball and the game script. I’m not sure of the true reason for this issue, but it is clear that it has happened.
When the Cowboys trail, Dak Prescott and the coaching staff seem to ignore short passes and check-downs WAY too early, and they avoid things like play-action passes that they have abused in good game-scripts this year.
If the Cowboys started every game up 7-0, I think that they would be a MUCH better offense than they are right now, and this bet at +2200 is assuming that they eventually figure this out.